BlackRock — 2026 Thematic Outlook: Ethereum as Tokenization Beneficiary
BlackRock's 2026 Thematic Outlook, authored by Jay Jacobs, identifies tokenization as one of the year's defining mega-forces and names Ethereum as its likely beneficiary. With 66% of all tokenized assets already on Ethereum — versus 10% on BNB Chain and under 5% on Solana — the report frames the network as positioned for the next era of institutional capital deployment, despite spot price weakness.
BlackRock’s 2026 Thematic Outlook, authored by Jay Jacobs (US Head of Equity ETFs at BlackRock), names tokenization as one of the year’s defining mega-forces — and singles out Ethereum as the network most likely to capture its growth.
The case rests on a stark distribution chart. According to BlackRock, Ethereum already accounts for 66% of all tokenized assets, dwarfing the next four chains combined: BNB Chain at 10%, Solana at 5%, Arbitrum and Stellar at 4% each, and Avalanche at 3%. That dominant share, Jacobs argues, positions Ethereum as the natural beneficiary as institutions move serious capital onto public chains.
Jacobs’s framing — that Ethereum may be poised to benefit from the next era of tokenization — lands at a peculiar moment in the price chart. ETH is trading roughly 40% below its August 2025 all-time high and is down 10% year-over-year, even as gold and tech equities print fresh records. The disconnect between Wall Street’s structural bullishness and ETH’s spot price has become its own story.
The institutional posture extends well beyond BlackRock’s research desk. iShares ETHA holds roughly $11 billion in assets under management. JPMorgan selected Ethereum for its first tokenized money market fund in December. Morgan Stanley filed for an Ethereum ETF in January. Bitmine, helmed by Tom Lee, has accumulated and staked over $13 billion in ETH. Each move reinforces the same wager: that the network’s settlement role will compound regardless of cycle timing.
Beyond tokenization, BlackRock’s outlook flags AI and defense as the other two themes investors should track. Jacobs explicitly pushes back on AI-bubble narratives, arguing the data points to continued adoption depth rather than froth, and predicts attention will broaden toward defense as physical systems give way to digital capabilities.
For an institution of BlackRock’s scale to publish an annual outlook that names Ethereum specifically — rather than crypto generically — is itself a tell about where the firm sees portfolio construction heading.